针对目前汾河入黄径流锐减的问题，基于汾河水库控制流域1960~2013年54年的径流资料，采用Mann-Kendall法和滑动T法相结合对径流时间序列进行突变检验，探究了流域径流阶段性变化规律，并建立双累积曲线模型定量计算了驱动因素降水和人类活动对径流减少的影响量。结果表明：①汾河水库控制流域内静乐站和上静游站径流均呈现减少趋势；②流域内静乐站径流序列突变年份为1979年，上静游站为1982年；③人类活动是该流域径流减少的主要因素，占径流减少总影响量的84.48%，静乐站和上静游站的降水对径流影响率分别为15.62%和14.95%，人类活动的影响率分别为84.38%和85.05%。

Focusing on the sharp decline of the runoff of Fenhe River into the Yellow River, based on the runoff data from 1960 to 2013 of the watershed controlled by the Fenhe reservoir, we analyzed the variation trend of the runoff by using the Mann-Kendall method and sliding T-test to look for the abrupt change points. We also used the double mass curve to calculate the influence of rainfall and human activities on the runoff decline. The results showed that the annual runoffs at Jingle station and Shangjingyou station both showed a trend of decline. The runoff series at Jingle station altered abruptly in 1979, and at Shangjingyou station, it altered abruptly in 1982. The runoff decline in the watershed controlled by Fenhe reservoir was mainly affected by human activities, whose contribution rate was 84.48%. The contribution rates of rainfall and human activities to the runoff at Jingle station were 15.62% and 84.38%, respectively, and those at Shangjingyou station were 14.95% and 85.05%, respectively.

“十二五”科技支撑计划“黄河水沙调控技术研究及应用”（2012BAB02B04-07）