水文集合预报研究与应用综述
Review of Research and Application of Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  水文集合预报  不确定性信息  水文集合前处理  水文集合后处理
英文关键词:Hydrologic ensemble prediction  Uncertainty  Hydrologic ensemble pre-processing  Hydrologic ensemble post-processing
基金项目:长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2012324/KY);国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAB05B04)
作者单位
徐 静,叶爱中,毛玉娜,邓斅学 北京师范大学 全球变化与地球系统科学研究院北京 100875 
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中文摘要:
      相对于传统的确定性水文预报,水文集合预报包含了水文预报各个环节的不确定性信息,因此在理论上更加科学,在生产实践中也提高了对暴雨、洪水、干旱等事件的认知和预报能力,为水资源管理和防洪抗旱提供了更精确的实用信息。水文集合预报当前研究的热点是前处理与后处理,以及如何给出业务化的预报。在回顾水文集合预报发展历程的基础上,总结了水文集合预报处理的方法及其应用研究,重点分析了水文集合预报系统中前处理、后处理两大模块,提出了水文集合预报发展面临的问题与挑战。
英文摘要:
      Compared with the traditional determined hydrologic forecast, hydrologic ensemble forecast contains various uncertainties in the hydrologic forecast processes. Therefore, the accuracy and validity of hydrologic forecast have been improved theoretically. Meanwhile, the cognitive and predictive capabilities of the events such as storm, flood, and drought have been enhanced in the practical applications. The hydrologic ensemble forecast can provide more accurate and useful information in flood control, drought relief, and sustainable water resources management. In this paper, we firstly reviewed the history of hydrologic ensemble forecast, and then we summarized the research progresses in theory, methods, as well as the applications and operational hydrologic ensemble forecast. We focused on two research aspects of the pre-processing and post-processing issues in an effort to provide a useful platform for the development of hydrologic ensemble prediction. The perspectives and recommendations on this subject were provided. This paper is of important significance in the future development of hydrologic ensemble forecast research.
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