水资源是地区经济社会发展基础性战略资源,区域用水效率的空间均衡是地区均衡协调发展的前提和必然要求。研究通过构建用水效率引力模型并结合ArcGIS空间相关分析技术,揭示了区域用水效率及其关联强度的时空演变特征,进一步采用多元回归分析方法辨识了用水效率关联度潜力的主要影响因素,并以广东省2004-2018年21个地级市的面板数据为例进行计算与分析。结果表明：广东省万元GDP用水量与农田灌溉亩均用水量存在较强的空间相关性,珠三角为用水效率高值区,粤北与东西两翼为用水效率低值区；全省用水效率关联度随时间推移呈增强趋势,珠三角用水效率引力值最强,粤东次之,粤北与粤西较弱；研究与试验发展经费对用水效率关联度潜力的影响更为持久,为主要驱动因素。研究主要从充分发挥珠三角用水效率高值区联动效应和加大水利科技创新投入等方面提出对策建议,可为区域用水效率的空间均衡提供理论依据与参考。

Water resources are the basic strategic resources for regional economic and social development, and the spatial balance of regional water use efficiency (WUE) is the prerequisite and inevitable requirement for balanced and coordinated development of region. In view of the unbalanced problem of regional WUE, this paper studied the characteristic of the spatiotemporal evolution of regional WUE and its spatial correlation degree by constructing gravity model combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis technique, and investigated the influencing factors using the multiple regression analysis method. Taking Guangdong province as an example, 21 prefecture-level cities panel data from 2004 to 2018 were calculated and analyzed. The results show that：Both the water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP and the average water consumption per mu for farmland irrigation have strong spatial correlations in Guangdong province. The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is an area with high WUE, while the north of Guangdong and the east and west sides are areas with low WUE; The correlation degree of WUE in the whole province showed an increasing trend over time. The gravity value of WUE was the strongest in the PRD, followed by that in the east of the province, and weaker in the north and west of the province; The impact of research and experimental development funds on the potential of WUE correlation is more lasting and is the main driving factor. This study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions mainly from the aspects of giving full play to the linkage effect of high WUE in the PRD and increasing investment in water conservancy science and technology innovation, and can provide theoretical basis and reference for the spatial equilibrium of regional WUE.

TV213.9

国家自然科学基金项目（51979043；51509127）