[关键词]
[摘要]
水资源是城市发展过程中的重要资源,为了探究城市化进程中水资源利用状况,以期实现城市水资源高效利用,为制定科学合理的水资源优化配置提供理论依据。以北京市为例,基于水足迹理论与LDMI模型,计算分析了2003-2018年水足迹变化以及经济、技术和人口对水足迹变化的驱动效应。结果显示:北京市水足迹变化分为两个阶段,第一阶段在2003-2011年为波动阶段,第二阶段在2012-2018年为下降阶段,水足迹变化呈良性发展,但进口依赖度较高,需要进一步优化内部水资源利用效率和产业结构,保障水资源生态安全,水资源利用效率持续增加,可持续性增强,生态安全有所改善,但仍处于严重超载状态,北京市城市化过程中应注意经济发展和人口增加带来的水资源消耗的增加,从而实现水资源可持续利用。水资源变化驱动因素的影响程度为:技术效应>经济效应>人口效应。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Water resources are important resources in the process of urban development. In order to explore the utilization of water resources in the process of urbanization, in order to achieve efficient utilization of urban water resources, and to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific and reasonable optimal allocation of water resources. Taking Beijing as an example, based on Water Footprint Theory and LDMI model, this paper calculates and analyzes the changes of water footprint and the driving effects of economy, technology and population on water footprint change from 2003 to 2018. The results show that: the change of water footprint in Beijing can be divided into two stages: the first stage is fluctuating from 2003 to 2011, and the second stage is from 2012 to 2018. The change of water footprint is benign, but the import dependence is high. Therefore, it is necessary to further optimize the internal water resources utilization efficiency and industrial structure, ensure the ecological security of water resources, and continuously increase the utilization efficiency of water resources In the process of urbanization in Beijing, attention should be paid to the increase of water resources consumption caused by economic development and population increase, so as to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources. The influence degree of driving factors of water resources change is: technology effect > economic effect > population effect.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划),国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)