基于原型观测数据对黄河内蒙段的冰盖厚度进行了模拟。通过引入Colburn类比法计算冰盖下的热通量，在热力学方程中引入河流流量、水流流速、水位河道坡降、冰盖糙率等因素，改进了基于Stefan公式的度日法冰厚计算模型。采用巴彦高勒至头道拐河段四个测站的原型观测数据率定该冰厚计算模型的相关参数，并通过气温、水温数据进行冰厚计算。结果表明：改进后的冰厚计算模型在计算结果的精度上达到1.97％，相比于Stefan模型的14.99％、统一度日法模型的4.77％、动水冰厚辐射冰冻度日法模型的14.98％，精度上有所提升，冰厚变化趋势与现场原型观测趋势一致。根据累积气温值与气温序列特征分析2006-2017年的头道拐测站气温数据，提取冬季累积气温值最大的2009-2010年进行冰厚计算，模型计算结果精度为7.34％。改进模型在正常天气条件和极端天气条件下的冰厚计算结果均保持较高的精度，研究结果可为极端天气条件下研究区的冰厚计算提供理论依据。

Based on the prototype observation data, the ice sheet thickness in Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River was simulated. Colburn analogy method to calculate the heat flux under the ice cover, the factors such as river flow rate, water flow rate, river level slope and ice cover roughness are taken into account, and a model for calculating ice thickness by means of degree-day method based on Stefan formula is proposed. Relevant parameters of the ice thickness calculation model were calibrated by using the prototype observation data of four stations in the Bayan Gaolei to Toutaoguai reach. The calibrated model could calculate the ice thickness through the air temperature and water temperature data. The calculated results of the ice thickness model are compared with those of other ice thickness models.The results show that the ice thickness calculated by the ice thickness model is close to the measured ice thickness value.The accuracy of the improved ice thickness calculation model reaches 1.97%, which is improved compared with 14.99% of Stefan model, 4.77% of unified degree of maturity model and 14.98% of dynamic water ice thickness radiation degree of maturity model. The trend of ice thickness variation is consistent with the measured ice thickness variation trend. By analyzing the temperature data of Toutaoguai station from 2006 to 2017 and calculating the ice thickness in the winter of 2009-2010, the results show that the calculation results of ice thickness of this model maintains high accuracy under both normal and extreme weather conditions. The accuracy of model calculation is 7.34%. The results can provide theoretical basis for the calculation of ice thickness in the study area under extreme weather conditions.

国家自然科学(51879065)、国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508401)、中国电力建设股份有限公司项目(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02).