[关键词]
[摘要]
用水结构的分析和预测是水资源管理和规划的前提和基础。以北京市为例, 分析了 1988- 2016 年北京市用 水结构的演变特征, 揭示了导致用水结构变化的驱动因素, 讨论了未来北京市用水结构可能出现的变化及其对水资 源供给的影响。结果表明, 近 30 年来北京市总用水量先升后降, 而后缓慢增加, 农业用水和工业用水持续减少, 而 生活用水和环境用水则持续增加。农作物播种面积的减少和工业节水分别是导致农业用水和工业用水减少的主要 原因, 生活用水的增加主要是由于人口的增长和人们用水方式的变化, 而环境用水的增加和园林绿化面积的增长关 系密切。预计未来北京的农业用水仍将持续减少, 而工业用水的变化取决于产业结构调整的力度。生活用水仍将 缓慢增长, 这将是未来北京市水资源安全供给面临的最大压力。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Analyzing and forecasting the water utilization str ucture is essential to w ater r eso urces planning and management. Taking Beijing as a case study, this study analyzed the chang e of water utilizatio n structur e in Beijing from 1988 to 2016, re2 v ealed the main driv ing facto rs that caused the chang e in water utilizatio n structure, and discussed the possible chang es in futur e water utilizat ion str ucture in Beijing and theirs influence on water supply. Results showed that the to tal water use in Beijing first rose and then declined, then slow ly r ose ag ain during 198822016. Agricultural and industrial water use continued to decrease, while domestic w ater use and environmental water use incr eased co ntinuously . T he reduction in agricultural and indust rial w ater use was primarily attributed t o the r eduction in cro p acreage and the practice o f w ater conser vatio n. T he increase in domestic water use was mainly caused by the incr ease in po pulat ion and the change of w at er2related lifestyle. The incr ease in env iro nmen2 tal wat er use can be ex plained by the incr ease of g arden and gr een ar ea in Beijing. It is ex pected t hat t he ag ricult ur al w ater use in Beijing w ill co nt inue to decrease in the near futur e, w her eas the chang e in industrial water use w ill depend o n the degr ee of in2 dustrial st ructur e adjustment. In the near fut ur e, the bigg est challenge to w ater r eso urce security in Beijing comes from the in2 cr ease in domestic wat er use.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家重点研发计划 ( 2016YFC0401402) ; 国家自然科学基金 ( 41601034; 41330529)