近年来我国国际贸易和粮食进口规模、国内省际间商品贸易流通规模均持续增加，这种区域间商品贸易伴随着虚拟水流通，对缓解缺水地区水资源压力具有重要意义。为反映地区消费环节真实的水量消费和用水效率，有必要在虚拟水分析的基础上研究经济社会消费水量。基于国家和各省水资源投入产出表，构建虚拟水通量以及综合用水效率评价模型，评估2007、2012、2017年我国各省虚拟水通量、经济社会消费水量及其综合效率，并对未来经济社会消费水量极值进行了预测。结果表明，国内虚拟水输入区向高收入区域聚集，虚拟水输出区向水资源密集型产品生产地聚集，考虑虚拟水流通后，各省综合用水效率具有趋同性特征，人均综合消费水量与经济发展水平呈较好的对数关系，经济越发达、居民生活水平越高，人均综合消费水量越高；由于国际贸易商品结构变化，2012年之前我国经济社会用水量高于经济社会水消费量，之后后者超过前者，预期在2035~2040年时间段我国经济社会消费水量将达到6907亿m3极值，比经济社会用水量高427亿m3。经济社会用水量和经济社会消费水量分别反映了生产端和消费端用水规模，随着经济社会生活水平提升以及生产结构和贸易结构的转变，经济社会消费水量超过经济社会用水量规模将日趋扩大，二者差额主要通过虚拟水解决，需要合理优化商品进出口结构，避免大宗进口引发经济和社会风险。

In recent years, the scale of China's international trade、grain imports and the circulation scale of domestic inter-provincial commodity trade have continued to increase, and this interregional commodity trade was accompanied by virtual water circulation, which was of great significance to alleviate the water resource pressure in water shortage areas. In order to reflect the real water consumption and water use efficiency of regional consumption links, it was necessary to study the water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption (it includes residential water usage, ecological environment water usage and virtual water usage with social commodity consumption) on the basis of virtual water analysis. Based on the national and provincial water resource input-output tables, this study built a virtual water flux and comprehensive water use efficiency evaluation model to evaluate the virtual water flux, water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption and comprehensive water use efficiency of China's provinces in 2007, 2012 and 2017, and predicted the extreme value of water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption in the future. The results showed that the domestic virtual water input area converged to high-income areas, and the virtual water output area converged to water resources intensive product production areas. Considering the virtual water circulation, the comprehensive water use efficiency of each province had the same characteristics, and the per capita comprehensive water consumption had a good logarithmic relationship with the level of economic development. The more developed the economy and the higher the living standard of residents, the higher the per capita comprehensive water consumption; due to changes in the structure of international trade commodities, China's water usage of economic and social was higher than that of water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption before 2012, and then the latter exceeded the former. It is expected that China's water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption will reach the extreme value of 6907 billion cubic meters in 2035-2040, 427 billion cubic meters higher than the water usage of economic and social. Water usage of economic and social and water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption respectively reflected the scale of water use at the production end and the consumption end. With the improvement of economic and social living standards and the transformation of trade structure, China's water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption has exceeded the water usage of economic and social, and will still show an increasing trend in the future. The difference between the two was mainly solved through virtual water. It is necessary to reasonably optimize the commodity import and export structure to avoid economic and social risks caused by bulk imports.

国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）,国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）