利用海河流域 1960年- 2010年 25 个典型气象站点的逐月降雨量资料, 采用线性回归法、 累计距平法分析海 河流域年际降雨特征, 应用皮尔逊 III 型曲线法综合分析降雨量的概率分布, 运用空间插值法分析海河流域降雨的 空间变化特征。结果表明: 海河流域近 51 年来降雨量呈现微弱下降趋势, 且近年来下降趋势稳定。海河流域丰水 年较少, 枯水年较多, 且有加剧的趋势, 年内降雨极不均匀, 季节变化明显, 降雨量空间上由南向北逐渐递减。

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 25 meteorological stations in the Haihe River Basin from 1960 to 2010, the inter 2annual precipitation characteristics in the Haihe River Basin were analyzed using the linear regression and cumulative a 2 nomaly curve methods. T he probability distribution of precipitation was analyzed using the Pearson III curve method, and the spatial variation of precipitation was analyzed using the spatial interpolation method. T he results showed that (1) precipitation in the Haihe River Basin has a slightly decreasing trend in recent 51 years, and the decreasing trend is stable recently; ( 2) there is a trend with more wet years while less dry years in the Haihe River Basin and the trend is increasing; (3) seasonal variation of precipitation is obvious; and (4) precipitation decreases trend from the south to the north.

大学生创新创业训练计划项目( 201310361002) ; 国家自然科学基金( 41201017)