水源涵养能力是生态系统服务功能的重要体现，为探究变化环境下的流域水源涵养状况，支撑流域生态保 护和经济发展，构建沁河流域 SWAT（soil?and?water?assessment?tool）模型，基于元胞自动机马尔科夫（celluar automata-Markov，CA-Markov）模型预测未来 2030 年土地利用状况，结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (coupled model?intercomparison?project?phase?6，CMIP6?)?气象数据，模拟流域未来降水、蒸发和径流，依据水量平衡原理，分 析历史和未来年份流域水源涵养能力的时空变化特征。时间维度上：2010—2016 年沁河流域水源涵养能力呈波 动上升趋势，多年平均水源涵养量为 49?mm，多年平均水源涵养率为 8%；2024—2030 年水源涵养能力呈波动下降 趋势，多年平均水源涵养量为 51?mm，多年平均水源涵养率为 10%。空间维度上：2010、2015 和 2025 年流域水源 涵养能力呈现从上游到下游递增的趋势，2030 年则呈现从上游到下游递减的趋势。整体来看，流域多年平均水源 涵养量不足 100?mm，且各年份均有子流域的水源涵养量出现负值，流域水源涵养能力较差。研究结果可为流域 水资源管理、协同保护和发展以及改善人水关系提供科学参考和数据支撑。

In?the?context?of?global?climate?change,?excessive?deforestation,?urban?construction?and?irrational?use?of water?resources?have?been?carried?out?by?human?beings?for?a?long?time,?and?the?phenomena?of?water?resource shortage, ?water ?environment ?pollution, ?water ?ecology ?deterioration ?and ?river ?closure ?have ?become ?increasingly prominent.?The?original?ecosystems?in?many?river?basins?were?destroyed?and?the?ecosystem?service?functions?were reduced.?Water?conservation?capacity?has?important?service?functions?such?as?regulating?runoff,?purifying?water quality,?and?regulating?and?storing?flood?water.?As?a?first-level?tributary?of?the?Yellow?River,?the?Qinhe?River?is?an important ?part ?of ?the ?ecosystem ?along ?the ?river. ?However, ?due ?to ?the ?influence ?of ?climate ?change ?and ?human activities?in?recent?years,?the?land?use?change?of?the?Qinhe?River?basin?is?significant,?and?the?inter-annual?variation characteristics ?of ?water ?conservation ?function ?are ?gradually ?complicated. ?Therefore, ?exploring ?the ?water conservation?capacity?of?Qinhe?River?basin?in?the?changing?environment?can?provide?scientific?reference?value?for ecological?protection?and?high-quality?development?strategy?of?the?Yellow?River?basin. ??????SWAT?model?was?constructed,?and?the?land?use?data?set?of?the?Qinhe?River?basin?in?2030?was?predicted?based on?the?CA-Markov?model?to?analyze?and?predict?the?temporal?and?spatial?changes?of?water?conservation?capacity?in the?Qinhe?River?basin.?Combined?with?CMIP6?meteorological?data,?the?hydrological?factors?of?the?river?basin simulated?by?the?SWAT?model?were?obtained?according?to?the?principle?of?water?balance.?The?temporal?and?spatial changes?in?water?conservation?in?the?past?and?future?years?were?calculated.?In?addition,?by?calculating?the?ratio?of water?conservation?and?precipitation,?the?index?of?water?conservation?rate?was?introduced?to?further?quantify?the water?conservation?capacity?of?the?basin?for?storing?precipitation?and?supplying?water. ??????The ?results ?show ?that ?the ?average ?annual ?water ?conservation ?is ?49 ?mm ?and ?the ?average ?annual ?water conservation ?rate ?is ?8%?in ?the ?Qinhe ?River ?basin. ?From ?2010 ?to ?2016, ?water ?conservation ?showed ?a ?trend ?of fluctuation ?and ?increase, ?and ?the ?water ?conservation ?is ?consistent ?with ?the ?inter-annual ?variation ?trend ?of precipitation.?The?spatial?distribution?characteristics?of?water?conservation?and?water?conservation?rate?in?2010, 2015,?and?2025?are?similar,?showing?a?trend?of?increasing?from?upstream?to?downstream?and?decreasing?from?west to?east.?However,?the?spatial?distribution?characteristics?of?water?conservation?and?water?conservation?rate?in?2030 are?different?from?other?years,?and?the?overall?trend?is?decreasing?from?the?upstream?to?the?downstream,?and?the water?conservation?and?water?conservation?rate?are?negative?in?the?downstream?multi-section?basins. ??????The?analysis?showed?that?the?spatial?distribution?of?water?conservation?rate?and?water?conservation?in?the?basin has?a?good?consistency,?and?there?are?negative?values?in?the?sub-basins,?indicating?that?the?water?conservation capacity?of?the?basin?is?low,?the?ecological?environment?is?damaged?to?a?high?degree,?and?the?ecological?water consumption?in?the?river?is?insufficient,?which?is?in?line?with?the?actual?situation?that?the?relevant?river?reaches?were cut?off.