[关键词]
[摘要]
通过分析气候变化对河北省农业生产发展的影响,提出在全省范围内可供选择的、适应气候变化的技术措施,然后应用特尔菲法和层次分析法(AHP)建模,对各种水利、农业措施进行量化识别,提出了不同类型区适应性技术措施综合评价成果和适应性技术措施优先排序,进而提出了适应气候变化的农业综合节水与种植技术集成配套模式。实践应用效果表明,研究成果对于提高示范区农业适应气候变化的能力,减少水资源系统的脆弱性,确保农业生产持续稳定发展,起到了十分重要的作用。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
According to the analysis of effects of climate change on the agricultural development in Hebei Province, different technical measures were proposed which are available and adapting to climate change. The Delphi method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were used to perform quantitative recognition of the water conservancy and agricultural measures in order to evaluate and prioritize the adaptive techniques in different area, and an integrated agricultural water-saving and cultivation technology was proposed adapting to climate change. The results can enhance the adaptability of agriculture in the demonstration area to climate change, reduce the vulnerability of water resources system , and ensure the sustainable development of agricultural production.
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