海河流域1961-2010年极端气温与降水变化趋势分析
Trends in precipitation and temperature extremes in Hai River Basin, 1961–2010
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  极端气温  极端降水  趋势分析  海河流域  气候变化
英文关键词:temperature extremes  precipitation extremes  trend analysis  Hai River Basin  climate change
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目课题“气候变化对旱涝灾害的影响及风险评估”(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51279207).
作者单位
王 刚, 严登华,张冬冬,刘少华 1. 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室北京1000382. 中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所北京100038 
摘要点击次数: 3136
全文下载次数: 2477
中文摘要:
      以海河流域30个气象基准站1956年-2010年气温和降水日值资料为基础,选取12个表征极端气候变化指标,分析了海河该流域极端气温与降水的变化趋势。结果表明:海河流域极端高温的强度、频度和持续时间均有较强的增加趋势,;极端低温的强度、频度显著降低,反映出流域整体增温的气候变化背景。;海河流域短历时极端降水强度有增大趋势,年极端降水的发生频次降低,连续湿日表现出一定的减少趋势,而连续干日在近几十年来有一定的增加趋势,区域呈现弱干化趋势。从年代际变化特征看,20世纪90年代以来,年极端高温事件和短历时强降水事件发生趋于频繁,而长持续性降水事件的降水量减少。海河流域整体的暖干趋势以及降水集中的趋势,将对农业生产、水资源开发利用造成不利影响;,同时,短历时极端强降水事件的增加可能加剧局地的山洪灾害和城市内涝的风险。
英文摘要:
      Based on the daily data of precipitation and temperature of 30 basic meteorological stations during the period 1956-2010, twelve indices characterizing extreme climate change have been selected to analyze the temporal changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in the Hai River Basin. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows an increase in the intensity, frequency and duration of high temperature extremes and a decrease in that of cold extremes. The intensity of short-time precipitation extremes shows an increase and the frequency of heavy precipitation shows a decrease. The consecutive wet days shows a decrease, while the consecutive dry days shows an increase in recent decades, thus the dry pattern has been aggravated in the basin. The annual high temperature extremes and short-time precipitation extremes have begun to frequently occur since 1990s from interdecadal variations, the rainfall of long-duration precipitation events has shown a decrease however. The general warm and dry trend and precipitation concentration will have a negative impact on the agriculture production and water resources development. Meanwhile, the increase of short-time precipitation extremes may exacerbate the risk of local flood disaster in mountainous area as well as urban waterlogging.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器