为了研究中国南北过渡带水面蒸发的时空变化及对其趋势进行预测，利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势检验法、灰色关联分析法和R/S分析法对中国气象数据网南北过渡带43个气象站1980-2017年的水面蒸发量、平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速、日照时数等的日数据进行分析。结果表明：从时间上看，研究期内，南北过渡带年平均水面蒸发量呈较显著的上升趋势，气候倾向率为19.3 mm/10a且在1994年前后发生了突变，水面蒸发量由减小趋势转为上升趋势；年代平均水面蒸发量也逐步增加；季节上升趋势夏季较显著，春季、冬季、秋季不显著。从空间上看，气候倾向率在研究区内中部和东北部较低，其他地区较高。水面蒸发量上升的主要原因为平均气温的升高。未来一段时间内，南北过渡带水面蒸发量将继续上升。

In order to study the spatiotemporal variation of water surface evaporation and predict its trend, the daily data of water surface evaporation, average temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, and sunshine hours of 43 weather stations in the North-South transition zone of China Meteorological data network from 1980 to 2017 were analyzed by using climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall（M-K） trend test method, grey correlation analysis method and R/S analysis method. The results show that: from the perspective of time, during the study period, the annual average water surface evaporation in the north-south transition zone showed a significant upward trend, the climate tendency rate was 19.3 mm/10a and a sudden change occurred around 1994, and the water surface evaporation changed from decreasing to increasing; the average interdecadal water surface evaporation also gradually increased; the seasonal upward trend was significant in summer,and not significant in spring,winter and autumn. From a spatial perspective, the climate tendency rate was lower in the middle and northeast of the study area, and higher in other areas. The main reason for the increase in water surface evaporation was the increase in average temperature. In the future, the water surface evaporation in the north-south transition zone will continue to show an upward trend.

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国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）,国家科研基础资源调查专项，基本科研业务费