Characteristics and driving forces of runoff evolution under changing climate in the Qingshui River Basin
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Abstract:
The Qingshui River Basin in the upperr eaches of the Hai River is lo cated in the semi-arid and semi-humid transition zone of north China. In this basin, water resources are scarce, and the ecological environment is extremely fragile. Both water resources and ecological environment are highly sensitive to climate chang and human activities. The analysis of characterist ics and driing forces of runoff evolution under changing climate is of great significance for the sustainable use of water resources, and for maintaining the ecological barrier function for the capitalregion. To identify the variability of runoff in Qingshui River, long term daily runoff data from 1950-2016 for the Zhangjiakou and Taolaimiao stations were analyzed. To quantify the runoff evolution and its hydrological response to climate change and human activities, order cluster analysis, wavelet analysis and double accumulatio curve methods were applied. The results are as follows; 1. The mean annual runoff in the Qingshui River Basin decreased significantly in the last 70 years, and the average runoff depth decreased at a rate of 0.6 mm/a. The monthly runoff also decreased significantly, especially in the spring and summer flood seasons; 2. An abrupt change was observed in 1979 in the Qingshui River, while the first and second main periods of runoff evolution were 27 a and 8 a, respectively. 3. The non-uniformity of runoff distribution increased significantly during the year, and spring floods ( March-April) account for the entire year. The proportion of total runoff has increased, while the proportion of summer flood ( July to August) in the total runoff has decreased. 4. The results of double mass curve analysis indicated that human activities were the main driving factors for the runoff variability, accounts for approximately 89% .
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